As the impact of the pandemic diminishes, travel in the Pacific region is making a comeback, although the recovery is uneven across different areas. A comparison of visitor arrivals between 2023 and 2019 reveals that Vanuatu appears to be thriving, but this perception can be misleading. The country has seen a significant rise in cruise tourism, with cruise arrivals nearly doubling since 2019 and outpacing air travel by more than three times in 2023. However, cruise tourism is characterized as “fickle and volatile,” often straining limited labor resources and yielding less revenue than air tourism. In 2019, despite having 40 percent more cruise tourists, air tourists generated approximately nine times the revenue. Currently, Vanuatu’s air tourism is only returning to 70 percent of pre-COVID levels, with total air arrivals in 2023 standing at just 64 percent of 2019 numbers.
Fiji has also performed well, achieving a 4 percent increase from its high pre-pandemic visitor numbers. The majority of arrivals, accounting for over 70 percent of total visitors in 2019, increased by 12 percent, although other segments remain below pre-COVID levels, attracting only 82 percent of their former visitors.
Samoa has shown resilience, with 2023 arrivals falling just 3 percent short of 2019 figures. The Solomon Islands and Tonga are seeing recoveries of 90 percent and 87 percent of their prior visitor levels, largely bolstered by events like the Pacific Games hosted in the Solomon Islands last year.
In contrast, Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Palau are facing significant challenges. PNG’s air arrivals are only at 68 percent of pre-COVID levels, while Palau is struggling at just 44 percent. Analysis of Palau’s situation points to a slow return of visitors from Asian countries, which is crucial since they made up 82 percent of visitors in 2019. Although Australia and New Zealand have seen a return to pre-COVID visitor levels, Asia’s overall visitor numbers to the seven countries assessed have dropped by 44 percent, with steep declines noted in Palau and Vanuatu.
For PNG, the recovery is sluggish across all visitor categories, with arrivals for business, employment, air tourism, and cruise tourism substantially lower than in 2019. The air travel numbers resemble those of 2007 or 2008, indicating that the issues extend beyond the pandemic. Detractors such as fuel rationing, violence, delayed projects, and a depressed business environment have all adversely affected travel.
Consequently, while some Pacific economies are seeing signs of recovery, others, particularly Palau, PNG, and Vanuatu, are still grappling with significant challenges in the tourism sector.