As the pandemic begins to fade from collective memory, travel in the Pacific is making a notable comeback. However, the recovery varies significantly among different regions.
In comparing visitor arrivals from 2023 to those in 2019, Vanuatu appears to be the major success story, but this perspective may be misleading. The nation has seen a notable increase in cruise tourism, with cruise arrivals nearly doubling since 2019, surpassing air arrivals by more than three times in 2023. However, this growth in cruise tourism is precarious and inconsistent, potentially straining the limited labor resources available and generating far less revenue compared to air tourism. In 2019, although there were 40 percent more cruise tourists than air tourists, the latter generated approximately nine times more revenue.
Air tourism in Vanuatu has only rebounded to 70 percent of pre-pandemic levels, with the total for 2023 reaching just 64 percent of 2019 figures. Meanwhile, Fiji has experienced a modest 4 percent growth from its already robust pre-pandemic travel figures. Holiday arrivals, which made up over 70 percent of total arrivals in 2019, increased significantly by 12 percent, although other segments remain behind, attracting only 82 percent of their pre-COVID visitor numbers.
Samoa has fared well, with 2023 arrivals only 3 percent lower than in 2019, while the Solomon Islands and Tonga are nearing pre-COVID visitor levels, having achieved recoveries of 90 percent and 87 percent, respectively. Solomon Islands benefited significantly from its hosting of the Pacific Games last year. If the arrivals in November had matched the average for the rest of the year, total arrivals would have only been around 70 percent of 2019’s figures.
Conversely, Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Palau are struggling in their recovery efforts. PNG has reached only 68 percent of its pre-COVID air arrivals level, while Palau is even lower at 44 percent. The lack of recovery in Palau can be attributed to slow visitor returns from Asian countries, which has significantly impacted its tourism, as visitors from Asia represented 82 percent of total arrivals in 2019. In contrast, other Pacific nations rely more on tourists from Australia and New Zealand, which have returned in significant numbers.
Overall, visitor numbers from Asia to the seven countries analyzed have dropped by 44 percent, with Palau and Vanuatu witnessing declines of 67 percent and 55 percent, respectively. In Fiji, a rise was noted with 67,513 more Australian visitors in 2023 compared to 2019, effectively compensating for fewer tourists from Asia.
PNG’s slow recovery is reflected across all demographics, with their 2023 arrivals only at 62 percent for business travelers, 77 percent for employment, and 64 percent for air tourism. For air arrivals specifically, the numbers have returned to levels not seen since 2007 or 2008. This decline is not solely due to the pandemic but also related to flight disruptions from fuel shortages, civil unrest, stalled resource projects, and an overall sluggish business environment.
While businesses, governments, and NGOs have adapted to reduced travel during the pandemic, total travel has not bounced back completely. From a climate standpoint, less air travel could be viewed positively. Nonetheless, the ongoing decline in air travel poses challenges for the Pacific region, as it may lead to reduced tourism and weakened business conditions. This presents concerning implications for the economies of Palau, PNG, and Vanuatu, based on current travel data.