As the upcoming US presidential election captures attention, many American territories such as Northern Marianas, American Samoa, and Guam, along with the wider Pacific region, are keenly observing the political developments. The pivotal question remains: will Kamala Harris retain her role in a Democratic-led White House, or will Donald Trump lead a Republican resurgence?
Experts, including academics and officials from New Zealand and Guam, are contemplating the implications of this election for the Pacific. Anna Powles, a senior lecturer at Massey University, emphasized the significant challenges small island nations face due to climate change and the intensified geopolitical tensions stemming from an increased military presence in Guam, especially following recent missile launches by China.
Pacific leaders have voiced concerns that the pressing need for climate action has been overshadowed by the ongoing rivalry between the US and China for influence in the region. This competition has led to a stronger alignment of countries like New Zealand and Australia with the US, particularly as the Biden administration has pursued strategic partnerships since 2018.
While New Zealand maintains robust trade ties with China, Powles suggests that its alignment with the US should be more transparent to the public to foster understanding of future ramifications. Although Pacific leaders appreciate increased US engagement, the rise of geopolitical tensions remains a source of unease.
In recent discussions, Pacific Islands Forum Secretary-General Baron Waqa stressed the importance of prioritizing peace and stability amid the arms competition between the US and China. Despite efforts to maintain a “Pacific Zone of Peace,” the increasing militarization poses challenges to this ideal.
US Ambassador to New Zealand, Tom Udall, reiterated that regardless of which candidate wins, history shows a consistent effort by US presidents to re-engage with the Pacific amidst growing Chinese interests. This includes reopening diplomatic missions in the region and fruitful engagements during forums like those held in Fiji.
Despite assurances for “forward-looking” initiatives from the US government, Pacific leaders desire tangible outcomes rather than mere rhetoric. Efforts to bolster military readiness have surged since the 2022 security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands, prompting enhanced defense funding.
Amid the complexities, Guam has a unique perspective as it stands on the frontline of potential conflict, especially after China’s recent missile tests. Congressman James Moylan has been actively educating other states about Guam’s needs, stressing security as a top priority for the territory. Despite bipartisan acknowledgment of the military presence, Moylan ensures that discussions surrounding compensation for nuclear radiation survivors will proceed regardless of the election results.
Looking ahead, a Trump victory could jeopardize efforts to establish a cohesive security framework in the Pacific, as previous alignments may shift toward national priorities. Conversely, a win for Harris might lead to a consolidation of promises made to the Pacific regarding climate initiatives and economic support.
Ultimately, the outcome of the election is poised to significantly affect the strategic, economic, and environmental landscape of the Pacific Islands. Regardless of political developments, there’s hope that dialogue will continue, leading to meaningful partnerships and actions that can address the pressing challenges faced by these regions. As new leadership takes shape, the focus remains on strong, collaborative efforts to foster peace and stability in the Pacific.
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