The recent Pacific Islands Political Studies Association conference in Wellington emphasized growing concerns about the rising number of security agreements in the Pacific, which some experts fear may actually heighten tensions instead of mitigating potential conflicts. Delegates discussed the implications of these agreements within the broader context of U.S.-China rivalry in the region.
Transform Aqorau, the vice chancellor of Solomon Islands National University, delivered a keynote address that articulated the Pacific’s vulnerability to being perceived as a geopolitical chessboard. He underscored the need to recognize the diverse aspirations of the sovereign nations in the region, drawing attention to the heightened pressure local leaders face as they navigate competing influences. Aqorau’s comments echoed sentiments from previous discussions, particularly concerning the retrogression to Cold War political dynamics, illustrated by the re-emergence of “spheres of influence.”
Aqorau noted that the historical presence of Chinese communities in the Pacific is often overlooked. Rather than being passive players, Pacific nations are attempting to leverage their positions amidst these great power struggles. However, as geopolitical tensions rise, maintaining a balance in external relationships may prove increasingly difficult for these nations.
The potential for conflict, especially regarding a U.S.-China escalation over Taiwan, emphasizes the necessity for Pacific nations to strengthen regional institutions like the Pacific Islands Forum. Aqorau advocates for widening partnerships and considering collaborative efforts with countries such as Japan, India, and the European Union to ensure that any security frameworks are tailored to the distinct social, cultural, and environmental realities of the Pacific.
Dr. Anna Powles, a co-creator of a Pacific defense diplomacy tracker, brought attention to the nearly 800 security agreements formulated since 2018, expressing concern over how these might influence the behaviors of Pacific nations in potential military conflicts.
The New Zealand government is contemplating the introduction of “strategic trust” clauses within its security agreements with Pacific nations, aiming to clarify each nation’s obligations and responsibilities amidst increasing Chinese influence, particularly following recent agreements like that between the Cook Islands and China.
The discussions at the conference also raised issues around the transparency of security agreements. For instance, the recent security deal between China and the Solomon Islands has faced criticism for lack of transparency, which could lead to public mistrust and destabilizing domestic conflicts.
Despite the challenges, there is optimism that Pacific leaders can unite and engage in positive dialogues focused on security that prioritize peacebuilding and developmental goals. This constructive approach not only reaffirms the sovereignty of Pacific nations but also encourages collaborative regional responses to an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.
Leave a comment