In the lead-up to the 53rd Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting in Nuku’alofa, Tonga, set for the end of August, Suva has been bustling with preparatory meetings for the past two weeks. Various topics, including unrest in New Caledonia, membership applications from US territories, declining banking services, and the establishment of a climate finance fund, have been focal points of discussion among the region’s ministers and senior policymakers.
Despite their significant role in shaping the forum’s agenda, the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and the Economic Ministers’ Meeting often do not receive the media attention they warrant. Recently, however, their profiles have grown, reflecting a heightened awareness of the importance of Pacific regionalism in global discussions. The term “Blue Pacific” has become common in statements from major powers like the US and Japan, originating from the work of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF).
The foreign ministers gave special attention to New Caledonia due to recent turbulence, including an effort to overhaul voting regulations that led to violence. Since unrest began in May, the region’s GDP has dramatically shrunk by 25%. Following the meeting, Mark Brown, the Forum Chair and Prime Minister of Cook Islands, revealed that French President Macron approved a PIF mission to New Caledonia before the leaders’ meeting.
Brown, along with the prime ministers of Fiji and Solomon Islands, is expected to visit the French territory next week before heading to Tonga. This schedule presents a quick turnaround for Fiji’s Sitiveni Rabuka, who will soon return from a ten-day trip to China.
New Caledonia has been added as a permanent agenda item for the PIF leaders. Meanwhile, the issue of human rights in West Papua also remains on the agenda but has seen little progress since a 2019 request for a visit by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights was made. There was no discussion regarding West Papua in the recent Foreign and Finance Ministers’ meetings.
In principle, the foreign ministers have agreed to support the applications of American Samoa and Guam for associate membership in the PIF. While this support is not final, it is expected to be confirmed in Tonga, although upgrading their status to full membership poses more challenges.
Concerns about the exit of banking services from the Pacific region have persisted, posing risks to global trade and financial connectivity. Leaders from Nauru and Vanuatu have reached out to the Bank of China, which sparked significant reactions from the US and its allies. Australia and New Zealand have committed to assisting countries vulnerable to losing banking services, with Australia pledging $4.15 million in July.
The establishment of the Pacific Resilience Facility took a step forward as ministers proposed that it be headquartered in Tonga. This decision aligns with a longstanding practice of distributing regional institutions among PIF members, promoting political commitment to regionalism.
The operational timeline for this “homegrown” climate finance mechanism remains uncertain due to a significant shortfall in capitalization. Out of an initial target of $500 million by 2026, around $328 million is still needed. The Forum Secretariat has indicated that a pledging conference, led by the UN Secretary-General, will take place soon in New York, with hopes for participation from countries like France, the UK, and wealthy Middle Eastern nations.
The ministerial gatherings have highlighted critical regional issues and set the framework for the upcoming leaders’ meeting in Tonga. Nonetheless, the prevailing practice of geopolitical transactionalism may shift national focus toward bilateral engagements rather than regional collaboration. This poses a risk that the leaders’ meeting may prioritize deferral over decisive action, particularly regarding contentious issues like deep-sea mining.
Moreover, there are growing concerns about transparency in regional discussions. While there was a positive return to sharing draft outcomes with regional media following the foreign ministers’ meeting, opportunities for journalists to engage in meaningful dialogue remain limited. Enhancing media access to discussions on Pacific regionalism is essential for involving local communities in this significant and challenging journey.