As the U.S. election progresses, American territories such as the Northern Marianas, American Samoa, and Guam, alongside other nations in the Pacific region, are keenly observing the situation. The election raises significant questions regarding the future of U.S. leadership—whether it will continue under President Kamala Harris or shift back to Donald Trump. Various experts, including academics, New Zealand’s U.S. ambassador, and Guam’s Congressman, are discussing the implications of the election for the Pacific Islands.
Anna Powles, a senior lecturer at Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies, emphasized the potential impacts of the election on small island nations, particularly concerning climate change and escalating geopolitical tensions due to increased military presence in Guam in light of China’s missile tests. Leaders in the Pacific express concerns that the critical issue of climate-induced natural disasters is being overshadowed by the geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China, a sentiment echoed by Pacific Islands Forum Secretary-General Baron Waqa.
There is a growing alignment of countries such as New Zealand and Australia with the U.S. since the Biden administration began reinforcing strategic partnerships with these nations. Although China is New Zealand’s leading trade partner, there is a strong focus on U.S. engagement in the region, although Powles suggests there is not enough public discourse on the subject in New Zealand.
Pacific leaders are welcoming U.S. engagement but caution about the accompanying geopolitical rivalries. The arms race fueled by the China-U.S. competition raises concerns about security in the Pacific. At the recent South Pacific Defence Ministers meeting in Auckland, Waqa highlighted the necessity of prioritizing peace and stability in the region.
The U.S. is eager to strengthen its presence in the Pacific, as underscored by U.S. Ambassador Tom Udall’s remarks on the engagement strategies of the past three presidents. Both Trump and Harris recognize China as a significant external threat, but their approaches may differ, particularly regarding climate change and multilateralism.
Amidst these tensions, Guam continues to play a pivotal role. Congressman James Moylan has been proactive in advocating for increased funding and support for Guam in Congress. He expressed a preference for Trump’s presidency, believing it might ensure stronger security protocols, while also defending military expansions as necessary for self-defense.
Looking to the future, an election win for Trump could potentially disrupt ongoing security initiatives in the Pacific and correlate with a domestic focus, whereas a Harris victory could lead to the fulfillment of key promises made to the region, particularly regarding climate financing and economic resilience.
In conclusion, regardless of the election outcome, the Pacific Islands are poised to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics that will shape their future security, climate resilience, and engagement with global powers. Both scenarios—whether under Harris or Trump—carry distinct implications for the Pacific, emphasizing the need for a continued commitment to enhanced cooperation and security in the region.
The ongoing discourse presents an opportunity for Pacific nations to assert their voices and priorities, fostering hope for a more engaged and supportive partnership regardless of the election outcome.
This evolving political landscape calls for close attention and active participation from Pacific leaders to address the urgent challenges they face.
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