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Illustration of How the US election may affect Pacific Island nations

Pacific Islands Brace for Impact: US Election’s Ripple Effect

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As the US presidential election approaches, territories such as the Northern Marianas, American Samoa, and Guam, alongside the broader Pacific region, are closely monitoring the outcomes. The critical question remains whether Kamala Harris will continue in a Democratic administration or if Donald Trump will return to power.

Experts, including academics and political leaders, are expressing their views on what a change in leadership could mean for the Pacific islands. Anna Powles, a senior lecturer at Massey University, pointed out that the election results could significantly impact small island nations grappling with climate change and heightened geopolitical tensions. The recent military buildup in Guam and the emergence of China as a formidable regional power have intensified these concerns.

Pacific leaders have voiced worries that the grave security threat posed by climate change has often been overshadowed by the ongoing rivalry between the US and China. This geopolitical tension has led to a stronger alignment of countries like New Zealand and Australia with the US, even as New Zealand engages economically with China. They hope for more public discourse about the implications of these alliances for New Zealand’s future.

The Pacific Islands Forum Secretary-General, Baron Waqa, recently emphasized the importance of prioritizing “peace and stability in the region”. While leaders are welcoming increased US engagement, they remain apprehensive about escalating geopolitical rivalries that could destabilize the area.

Regardless of the upcoming election’s outcome, US Ambassador to New Zealand Tom Udall indicated that previous administrations have aimed to reconnect with the Pacific. Both candidates view China as a primary external threat, suggesting continuity in US policy towards the region. The US has enhanced its presence in the Pacific, reopening embassies and participating in regional dialogues, although many Pacific leaders are advocating for concrete actions rather than mere promises.

Guam, in particular, remains on edge due to its strategic importance and ongoing military enhancements, revealing the island’s precarious position amid the arms race. Despite being exempt from federal income taxes, residents still grapple with issues of representation, as their votes do not count in federal elections—highlighting a broader concern among disenfranchised territories.

As the political climate shifts, Congressman for Guam, James Moylan, expressed his desire for a Trump presidency, linking it to potential enhancements in security amid regional tensions. He regards the military’s presence on Guam as a necessary measure to defend against external threats while reinforcing the island’s economic stability.

Looking ahead, if Harris retains her position, there is hope for greater attention to climate issues, promoting economic development in the Pacific, and delivering on existing commitments made by the Biden administration. Experts stress that tangible follow-through on these pledges will be essential for fostering trust and stability in the region.

In summary, the US election will have far-reaching implications for the Pacific Islands, with leaders and residents advocating for a future that prioritizes stability, security, and proactive measures in combating climate change. Whatever the electoral outcome, strengthening relationships and concrete actions will be pivotal in addressing the ongoing challenges faced by these island nations. There is hope that both candidates will recognize the importance of engaging with Pacific leaders and addressing critical issues like climate change to foster a secure and prosperous future for the region.


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