As the US election approaches, territories like the Northern Marianas, American Samoa, and Guam, along with the wider Pacific region, are carefully monitoring the political landscape. The outcome remains uncertain, with the possibility of a continued Biden administration led by Kamala Harris, or a return to the presidency under Donald Trump.
Experts, including academics and officials from New Zealand and Guam, are analyzing how the election might influence the Pacific. Anna Powles, a senior lecturer at Massey University, emphasizes that the outcome will significantly affect small island nations grappling with climate change and intensified geopolitical tensions, particularly with China expanding its military presence in Guam.
Leaders in the Pacific have expressed concern that the urgent issues of climate change and natural disaster security are being overshadowed by the ongoing rivalries between the US and China. Powell noted the increasing alignment of countries like New Zealand and Australia with the US, driven by strategic partnerships initiated by the Biden administration since 2018, despite New Zealand’s reliance on trade with China.
Pacific leaders appreciate US engagement but remain wary of geopolitical competition. The Secretary-General of the Pacific Islands Forum, Baron Waqa, highlighted the need to prioritize peace and stability in the region, an issue overshadowed by the arms race and burgeoning military presence following China’s missile tests.
Regardless of the election outcome, US Ambassador Tom Udall pointed out that historical trends show a continued push from past administrations to engage with the Pacific. Both potential presidents recognize China as the primary external threat to US interests, leading to increased US diplomatic efforts in the region.
Guam, strategically positioned in the Indo-Pacific, faces the constant threat of Chinese missiles. US investments have bolstered missile defense capabilities, illustrating the US commitment to safeguarding its territories. However, despite this military presence, Guamanians, like many in US territories, face challenges in their disenfranchisement from federal electoral representation.
Guam’s Congressman, James Moylan, advocates for stronger ties with US states and increased funding for the island, reinforcing that military expansion is necessary for defense against potential aggressors, while highlighting the need for economic growth and stability.
The potential implications of a Trump presidency raise concerns about reversing progress in Pacific security partnerships, while a victory for Harris could offer more consistency in fulfilling climate commitments and enhancing the regional economy.
In summary, the unfolding US election holds significant implications for Pacific island nations, emphasizing the importance of international cooperation in addressing climate change, security challenges, and economic stability. Regardless of the outcome, ongoing dialogues and partnerships will be essential for fostering a secure and prosperous future in the Pacific. There’s hope that the election will lead to renewed focus on tangible actions and collaboration with Pacific leaders.
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