Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates a significant 28.1 percent decrease in the number of Fijians migrating to Australia. Senior economists Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny from ANZ have analyzed this trend, suggesting it may offer a unique opportunity for Fiji to address the population deficiencies experienced after a wave of worker migration due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The economists explained that “net overseas migration” reflects the population changes resulting from immigration and emigration. Fiji has faced population growth slowdowns since 1966 largely due to net population losses. The years following the pandemic saw an unprecedented migration outflow of nearly 20,000 Fiji residents in the year ending June 2023, compared to an annual average of around 5,000 prior to the pandemic.
Australia and New Zealand have historically been the primary destinations for Fijians, comprising 90 percent of outbound migration. However, both countries are now enforcing stricter migration policies. The recent spike in Fiji’s migration numbers after the reopening of borders appears to be short-lived, as evident from the ABS statistics, which reported a decline in Fijian migration to Australia, dropping to 5,960 in the year leading to June 2024.
This reduction follows a dramatic increase in previous years, with a 322.2 percent rise in 2021-22 and a 144.4 percent increase in 2022-23, reaching a peak of 8,360. Long-term departures from Fiji have decreased by 23.1 percent, while there has also been growth in long-term arrivals back into Fiji, implying a net outflow of 5,960 individuals.
Looking ahead, ANZ economists predict that while long-term work departures may continue to decrease from their recent highs, initiatives like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program are likely to sustain some level of migration. The rise of student migration has been a significant factor in the increase of long-term departures; however, the trend is expected to decline, with more students returning to Fiji for their studies starting in 2025.
The economists express optimism for the future, stating that net overseas migration could contribute positively to Fiji’s population growth starting in 2026. This anticipated increase in population could stimulate domestic consumption, housing development, infrastructure investments, and support a more robust workforce, enhancing Fiji’s economic output.
Overall, while the current migration trends indicate challenges, they also present potential avenues for recovery and growth for Fiji’s economy in the coming years.
Leave a comment