Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates a significant 28.1 percent decline in Fijians migrating to Australia. According to ANZ senior economists Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny, this trend may help in briefly replenishing Fiji’s population, which has been affected by a worker exodus following the COVID-19 pandemic. They predict that this shift could stimulate economic activity in Fiji over the next year.
The term “net overseas migration” refers to the population change driven by immigration and emigration. Since 1966, Fiji has experienced a declining population growth due, in part, to a net loss of people. The lockdown period during the pandemic saw an increase in labor demand outside of Fiji, resulting in the net outflow of nearly 20,000 people in the year leading up to June 2023, compared to an annual average of 5,000 pre-COVID.
Historically, Australia and New Zealand have been the primary destinations for Fijian migrants, making up 90 percent of all outbound migration from Fiji. However, recent tightening of migration policies in both nations has led to a decrease in Fijian migration.
The ABS data reveals that 5,960 Fijians migrated to Australia in the year ending June 2024, following a dramatic rise in migration rates in previous years. Over the financial year, long-term departures from Fiji decreased by 23.1 percent, while long-term arrivals back to Fiji increased by 37.2 percent.
Looking ahead, economists anticipate a continued retreat in long-term work departures but expect programs like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) to facilitate a steady flow of workers. While student migration is expected to decline, a return of students from overseas studies is predicted to enhance Fiji’s long-term population growth starting in 2025. Overall, the economists forecast that Fiji’s population will begin increasing from 2026, which could drive domestic consumption and investment in housing and infrastructure, ultimately benefiting the country’s economy.
This news brings a cautiously optimistic outlook for Fiji’s demographics and economy, highlighting the potential for growth as migration patterns adjust post-pandemic. Such changes could foster a more vibrant economic landscape in Fiji, as returning citizens and sustained employment programs contribute to a resilient workforce.
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