The recent trend of Fijians migrating to Australia and New Zealand may be coming to an end as both countries implement stricter migration policies. ANZ Bank economists Dr. Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny shared their insights in a report titled “Fiji’s ‘mass’ migration to turn around and become a positive for population growth.”
In their analysis, the economists noted concerns raised in 2022 and 2023 about the significant number of Fijians leaving for employment, education, or emigration, estimating that about 58,223 people, approximately 6.6% of Fiji’s population, had departed. However, they offered a more optimistic perspective, suggesting that the actual net population loss due to migration was around 25,627, or 2.9% of the population during this period.
They argued that the surge in overseas migration is likely a temporary phenomenon that will not persist. The economists predict a decline in student migrations, which had contributed to the rise in long-term departures. They anticipate that as students return from their studies, this will positively impact Fiji’s population growth starting in 2025, with net migration contributing to growth by 2026.
They pointed out that Australia, which has accounted for 43% of Fiji’s recent long-term departures, is tightening its migration regulations. Similarly, New Zealand, which has represented 40% of the outflow, is also revising its immigration policies. The economists emphasized that the demand for high migration numbers in these countries has diminished, leading to tightened visa eligibility and stricter pathways to permanent residency, which will likely reduce the outflow from Fiji.
Nevertheless, they warned that employment-related departures, particularly through programs like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program, will persist, maintaining employment migration slightly above pre-pandemic levels.