Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates a significant 28.1 percent decline in the number of Fijians migrating to Australia, with figures dropping to 5,960 for the year ending June 2024. This marks a continuation of a shifting trend in migration patterns following the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on global movement.
Senior economists from ANZ, Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny, noted in their analysis that this reduction follows a period of massive outflow during the pandemic lockdowns, with nearly 20,000 Fijians leaving the country in the year to June 2023—a stark increase from the pre-pandemic average of about 5,000 annually. The majority of Fijians migrating have been heading to Australia and New Zealand, which make up 90 percent of Fiji’s outbound migration. However, recent tightening of migration policies in these countries is influencing the downward trend.
The economists highlighted an earlier surge in Fijian migration that peaked at 8,360 in 2022-23, a substantial 144.4 percent increase on the previous year. Long-term departures into Australia decreased by 23.1 percent, while arrivals of Fijians returning home rose by 37.2 percent, contributing to a net outflow of 5,960 individuals from Fiji.
Looking ahead, ANZ economists predict that the trend may begin to stabilize. They believe that while long-term departure rates will continue to decline from recent highs, programs like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) will sustain some level of migration. Additionally, the anticipated return of students from overseas studies is expected to contribute positively to Fiji’s long-term population figures from 2025 onwards.
By 2026, net overseas migration is projected to add to Fiji’s population, leading to increased domestic consumption and more investment in housing and infrastructure. This growth could foster a stronger economy and enhance opportunities within Fiji, ultimately creating a more stable and prosperous future for its citizens.
This emerging equilibrium in migration patterns could benefit Fiji by retaining its workforce and encouraging investment back into the country. The forecast underscores a hopeful transition for Fiji as it navigates the post-pandemic landscape.
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