Fiji’s population exodus to Australia and New Zealand appears to be slowing down as both countries have tightened their migration policies. Economists Dr. Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny from ANZ Bank examined this potential reversal in their recent report titled “Fiji’s ‘mass’ migration to turn around and become a positive for population growth.”
In their analysis of data from the past two years, they noted that commentators have highlighted the departure of approximately 58,223 Fijians, equating to roughly 6.6% of the population, due to employment, education, and emigration. However, the economists offered a more optimistic perspective, estimating that the net population loss due to migration was about 25,627, or 2.9% of the population during 2022 and 2023.
They suggested that the surge in overseas migration was likely temporary and would not be repeated. “Going forward, we believe that student migration, which contributed significantly to recent long-term departures, will decline starting this year. Long-term work departures are expected to reduce from their recent highs, and the return of students completing their studies will enhance Fiji’s long-term arrivals starting in 2025. We anticipate that migration on a net basis (arrivals minus departures) will contribute positively to Fiji’s population from 2026,” they stated.
Both Australia and New Zealand, which accounted for 43% and 40% of Fiji’s long-term departures, respectively, have made changes to their migration settings. The economists emphasized that the necessity for high migration figures in these countries is no longer present, as both have tightened visa eligibility and made pathways to permanent residency more difficult. These changes are expected to lead to a decline in the number of people migrating from Fiji.
Despite this, they noted that movements related to employment schemes, like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program, are likely to continue, keeping employment migration slightly above pre-pandemic levels.