The influx of Fijians migrating to Australia and New Zealand may be coming to an end as both countries have implemented stricter migration policies. Economists at ANZ Bank, Dr. Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny, explored this potential shift in their recent report titled “Fiji’s ‘mass’ migration to turn around and become a positive for population growth.”
In their analysis, they highlighted that during 2022 and 2023, there was a significant focus on the number of Fijians leaving the country for work, education, and emigration, leading to the conclusion that approximately 58,223 individuals (about 6.6% of Fiji’s population) had migrated overseas. However, they provided a more optimistic perspective, estimating that the actual net population loss due to migration was closer to 25,627, or about 2.9% of the population in that same period.
The economists suggested that the increase in migration was a temporary trend that is unlikely to persist. They forecasted a decline in student migration — which had contributed to increased long-term departures — and predicted that long-term work departures would also decrease from their recent highs. Their outlook indicates that students returning after their studies could result in a net gain for Fiji’s population starting in 2026.
Both Australia and New Zealand play significant roles in Fiji’s migration, with Australia accounting for 43% and New Zealand for 40% of recent long-term departures. The economists pointed out that the necessity for high migration numbers in these countries has diminished, resulting in tightened visa rules and more stringent pathways to permanent residency. These changes are expected to reduce the number of Fijians leaving for these nations.
Despite these restrictions, the economists cautioned that migration through employment schemes, particularly the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program, will likely continue, keeping employment migration levels slightly above those seen before the pandemic.