The migration of Fiji’s population to Australia and New Zealand appears to have reached a turning point as both countries have implemented stricter migration laws.
Economists Dr. Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny from ANZ Bank examined this potential shift in their latest report titled “Fiji’s ‘mass’ migration to turn around and become a positive for population growth.”
They noted that in 2022 and 2023, recent data on Fiji’s resident departures raised concerns among commentators, who mentioned that approximately 58,223 individuals (about 6.6% of Fiji’s population) left the country for jobs, education, or emigration. This trend was expected to continue, they noted. However, they take a more positive stance, estimating that Fiji’s net population loss due to migration was around 25,627, or 2.9% of its total population during the same period.
The economists also contend that the increase in overseas migration was temporary and not likely to be a recurring pattern. They predict a decline in student migration, which previously contributed to the rise in long-term departures, starting this year. They believe that long-term work migration will also decrease from its recent highs, while students returning from abroad will help increase Fiji’s long-term population figures from 2025 onward. They anticipate that, on a net basis, migration will begin contributing positively to Fiji’s population growth starting in 2026.
Australia, which accounted for 43% of Fiji’s recent long-term departures, has tightened its migration policies, as has New Zealand, which contributed to 40% of those departures. The economists remarked that the demand for high migration numbers in both countries has diminished. They have made changes to visa eligibility and pathways to permanent residency more stringent, which is expected to lower the number of people leaving Fiji.
Nevertheless, they warned that migration under employment schemes like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program will persist, likely keeping employment-related departures slightly above pre-pandemic levels.