The outflow of Fiji’s population to Australia and New Zealand may be coming to an end as both nations have tightened their immigration policies. Economists from ANZ Bank, Dr. Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny, discussed this potential shift in their recent Pacific Insight report titled “Fiji’s ‘mass’ migration to turn around and become a positive for population growth.”
In their analysis, the economists noted that between 2022 and 2023, reports indicated that Fiji had lost approximately 58,223 residents, or about 6.6% of its population, to overseas migration. However, they take a more optimistic stance, suggesting that the actual net population loss was closer to 25,627 or 2.9% of the population in the same timeframe.
They believe that the recent surge in emigration is a temporary phenomenon unlikely to persist. The economists predict a decline in student migration, which had significantly contributed to long-term departures. They expect that as students return to Fiji after their studies, there will be an increase in long-term arrivals starting in 2025, leading to a net positive contribution to Fiji’s population from 2026.
Australia and New Zealand, which accounted for 43% and 40% of Fiji’s long-term departures respectively, have both tightened immigration rules, reducing the influx of Fijians. The economists highlighted that the need for high migration numbers in these countries has diminished. Stricter visa eligibility and more challenging pathways to permanent residency are expected to lower the number of people leaving Fiji.
Nonetheless, they noted that employment migration under schemes such as the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program is likely to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, as such departures will continue.