The trend of population migration from Fiji to Australia and New Zealand may be coming to an end as both countries implement stricter migration policies. Economists Dr. Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny from ANZ Bank discussed this potential shift in their latest report titled “Fiji’s ‘mass’ migration to turn around and become a positive for population growth.”
In their analysis, they observed that commentators have pointed to the significant number of Fijians leaving for employment, education, and other reasons, estimating a loss of 58,223 individuals, or about 6.6% of Fiji’s population, due to overseas migration in 2022 and 2023. However, the economists present a more optimistic outlook, estimating the net migration loss at approximately 25,627, or 2.9% of the population, during the same period.
They argue that the recent surge in overseas migration was a temporary phenomenon and unlikely to persist. They predict that student migration, responsible for the rise in long-term departures, will decrease this year, and that long-term work migration will also decline from its recent highs. Additionally, the return of students from abroad is expected to positively impact Fiji’s population starting in 2025. The economists forecast that from 2026 onward, net migration (arrivals minus departures) will contribute to Fiji’s population growth.
The analysis highlights that Australia, which accounts for 43% of Fiji’s long-term emigrants, and New Zealand, which represents 40%, are both tightening their migration policies. The economists note that the need for high migration numbers in these countries is diminishing, leading to stricter visa eligibility rules and more challenging pathways to permanent residency, which will likely reduce the outflow from Fiji.
Nonetheless, they emphasize that migration for work under schemes like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program is expected to continue and may remain slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels.