Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has indicated a significant 28.1 percent decline in the number of Fijians migrating to Australia. ANZ senior economists Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny analyzed these statistics and believe this trend may temporarily help replenish the population of Fiji, which has seen a decline in its workforce following the COVID-19 pandemic.
The concept of ‘net overseas migration’ refers to the change in population numbers due to immigration and emigration. Historically, Fiji has experienced a net loss of population, contributing to its slow growth since 1966. The economic impact of the pandemic led to a substantial exodus, with nearly 20,000 individuals leaving Fiji for work abroad in the year ending June 2023, compared to an average of about 5,000 prior to the pandemic. Australia and New Zealand have been the primary destinations for these migrants, accounting for roughly 90 percent of emigration from Fiji.
However, the tightening of migration policies in Australia and New Zealand signals a potential change in this trend. The ABS statistics revealed that Fijians migrating to Australia fell to 5,960 in the year ending June 2024 after a previous surge in migration numbers during the post-pandemic reopening.
Despite the recent fluctuations, the economists predict that long-term work departures may continue to decline but believe programs like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) initiative will maintain some level of migration. They also foresee a drop in student migration, but anticipate that many students returning from studies abroad will contribute positively to Fiji’s population figures from 2025 onwards.
Looking ahead, the economists project that net overseas migration will start adding to Fiji’s population by 2026, which could stimulate domestic consumption, housing, infrastructure investments, and enhance the workforce needed for production growth.
In summary, while the immediate future of Fijian migration to Australia appears to be trending downwards, there are reasons to be optimistic about the long-term implications for Fiji’s economy and population growth. The returning workforce and students from abroad could significantly bolster economic activity and development in the country.
This situation offers a hopeful perspective as Fiji might see a reinvigoration of its local economy fueled by both returning residents and improved population dynamics in the coming years.
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