The marked increase in migration from Fiji since the end of the COVID pandemic has garnered significant attention.
As illustrated, before 2018, Fiji experienced an average annual net outflow of about 9,000 residents. This number surged to over 25,000 in both 2018 and 2019, and after a pause due to COVID, soared above 40,000 in 2022 and 2023.
Fiji’s population, just under one million, saw a net migration rate of 5 percent in 2023, a notably high figure.
The critical question is whether this is a temporary spike or the start of a new trend. A recent study by ANZ suggests it might be temporary, citing stricter migration policies in Australia and New Zealand as potential factors that could reduce out-migration from Fiji.
However, Australia and New Zealand have historically been the primary destinations for Fijian migrants, making up over 60 percent of the total Fijian diaspora according to UN data. There hasn’t been an increase in the number of Fijians gaining permanent residency in these countries, indicating that the current migration boom is driven by individuals leaving Fiji on temporary visas rather than permanent ones.
This observation initially supports the idea that the spike might be temporary. However, a deeper analysis reveals different insights. There are four main categories of Fijian temporary migrants in Australia and New Zealand: workers in the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) and Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) programs, asylum seekers, students, and other temporary workers.
Most PALM workers are expected to return to Fiji, and the majority of asylum applications are typically rejected, leading these individuals to return as well.
Other temporary workers and students remain significant, with temporary non-PALM workers in Australia growing from 713 in 2019 to 2,624 in 2023, and the number of students increasing from 668 to 4,636 in the same period. New Zealand has also seen growth, albeit more modest, in its Fijian student and non-RSE temporary worker populations.
Despite a new resident visa in New Zealand clearing most temporary Fijian migrants, non-RSE temporary workers still reached a peak in 2023. In New Zealand, most students are dependents of temporary workers, while in Australia, the number of students has significantly increased in the vocational education and training (VET) sector.
While total VET applications have rebounded to pre-COVID levels, applications and visa grants from Fiji remain much higher than pre-COVID levels, despite more stringent requirements.
Although student visa changes and rising fees may impact the number staying long-term, many Fijian students and workers will likely seek to remain in Australia. The share that succeeds might be lower, but their overall numbers could be substantial due to the high volume of applicants.
The future of Fiji’s out-migration rate remains uncertain. A 5 percent outflow is probably unsustainable, and rates may decline to around 25,000 annual departures as seen pre-COVID. Nevertheless, ongoing trends suggest that strong out-migration from Fiji is likely to persist.
This research was supported by the Pacific Research Program, funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The views are solely those of the authors.
Stephen Howes is Director of the Development Policy Centre and Professor of Economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University. Huiyuan (Sharon) Liu is a research officer at the Development Policy Centre, focusing on economic development. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of this newspaper.
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