The increase in migration out of Fiji following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic has been widely noted and is indeed a significant trend. Prior to 2018, there were on average about 9,000 more departures than arrivals of Fijian residents each year. This number jumped to over 25,000 in both 2018 and 2019, and after a brief pause due to COVID-19, surged to more than 40,000 in both 2022 and 2023. Given Fiji’s population of just under one million, a net out-migration rate of 5 percent in 2023 is notably high.
A key issue is whether this rise in emigration is temporary or a new long-term trend. A recent study by ANZ suggests it may be temporary, citing tighter migration policies in Australia and New Zealand as a potential factor that could reduce out-migration from Fiji. However, there is reason to question this conclusion.
Australia and New Zealand are the main destinations for Fijian migrants, hosting over 60 percent of the Fijian diaspora. There hasn’t been a significant increase in the number of Fijians becoming permanent residents in either country, except for a temporary spike in New Zealand due to a new resident visa introduced in 2021. This indicates that the recent migration surge involves individuals leaving Fiji on temporary rather than permanent visas.
Among these temporary migrants, there are four key groups in Australia and New Zealand: temporary workers under the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) and Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) schemes, asylum seekers, students, and other workers. The first group of PALM workers, and in particular bridging visa holders in Australia who are awaiting asylum decisions, are likely to eventually return to Fiji. However, the number of Fijian temporary workers and students in both countries has increased significantly in recent years.
In Australia, the number of temporary non-PALM workers grew from 713 in 2019 to 2,624 in 2023, while the number of students increased from 668 to 4,636 over the same period. In New Zealand, the number of non-RSE temporary workers rose from 5,658 to 8,199 and the number of students grew from 1,962 to 2,556. New Zealand’s new resident visa granted to over 10,000 Fijians in 2022 and 2023 largely cleared the backlog of temporary migrants, but the number of new non-RSE temporary worker arrivals continued to reach new highs in 2023.
In New Zealand, most Fijian students are dependents of temporary workers, a situation that is different from Australia where the rise in Fijian students has mainly occurred in the vocational education and training (VET) sector. The number of Fijian VET student visa holders in Australia has surged from 400 pre-COVID to nearly 4,000 currently.
Though Australia has tightened requirements for student visas, applications and grants to Fijians remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Despite an increase in student visa fees and new requirements that these visas be applied for offshore, many Fijian students and temporary workers are likely to try to remain in Australia and New Zealand.
The future out-migration rate from Fiji is uncertain. While a 5 percent out-migration rate is likely unsustainable, migration levels may drop to pre-COVID levels of around 25,000 annually. However, existing trends suggest that strong out-migration from Fiji could continue.
This research was supported by the Pacific Research Program, funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, with the views expressed being those of the authors only. Stephen Howes is the Director of the Development Policy Centre and a professor at the Australian National University, and Huiyuan (Sharon) Liu is a research officer at the Development Policy Centre focusing on economic development. The article first appeared on the Devpolicy Blog.