Migration out of Fiji has seen a significant increase since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to data, before 2018, there was an average of around 9,000 more departures than arrivals of Fijian residents annually. This number soared to over 25,000 in 2018 and 2019, and after a pause due to COVID-19, hit over 40,000 in both 2022 and 2023.
Fiji’s population is just under one million, making a net out-migration rate of 5 percent in 2023 notably high. The key question facing analysts is whether this spike is temporary or indicative of a new trend. A recent study by ANZ suggests that this increase is temporary, anticipating a decline due to tightened migration policies in Australia and New Zealand.
Australia and New Zealand are the primary destinations for Fijian migrants, accounting for more than 60 percent of the total Fijian diaspora according to UN data. Despite this, there has been no significant increase in the number of Fijians becoming permanent residents in these countries, though there was a surge in New Zealand due to a new resident visa introduced in 2021. This implies that the recent migration boom predominantly involves those leaving Fiji on temporary rather than permanent visas.
Four main groups of Fijian temporary migrants exist in Australia and New Zealand: temporary workers under schemes such as Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) and Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE), asylum-seekers, students, and workers. Temporary PALM workers mainly return to Fiji, while asylum-seekers, many of whom hold bridging visas in Australia, often face rejected applications and subsequent return.
The growth in Fijian students and temporary workers has been substantial. In Australia, the number of temporary non-PALM workers grew from 713 in 2019 to 2,624 in 2023, while student numbers leaped from 668 to 4,636. Similar, albeit more modest, growth was observed in New Zealand, with student numbers increasing from 1,962 in 2019 to 2,556 in 2023, and temporary non-RSE workers rising from 5,658 to 8,199. This surge occurred despite New Zealand’s new resident visa program, which granted residency to over 10,000 Fijians in 2022 and 2023.
Most students in New Zealand are dependents of Fijian temporary workers, a scenario not mirrored in Australia, where the number of students far exceeds that of temporary workers. The spike in Fijian students in Australia has been seen mainly in the vocational education and training (VET) sector, with current numbers approaching 4,000, a tenfold increase from pre-COVID levels.
Australian student visa requirements have tightened, but an exemption for Pacific students might mitigate the impact. Although the number of Fijian students able to stay long-term in Australia may decrease, many will still strive to remain.
While it’s uncertain how future out-migration from Fiji will evolve, sustaining a 5 percent out-migration rate seems unlikely. A return to the pre-COVID level of around 25,000 departures annually is possible. However, considering the current migration trends, out-migration is expected to continue robustly.
This research was supported by the Pacific Research Program, funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The authors’ views do not necessarily reflect those of this newspaper.
Stephen Howes is Director of the Development Policy Centre and Professor of Economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University. Huiyuan (Sharon) Liu is a research officer at the Development Policy Centre, working in economic development.