A new forecast released Thursday by the World Meteorological Organisation, produced by the UK Met Office, warns the world is likely to see global temperatures remain at or near record levels through the end of the decade — with a high probability of further temperature records and temporary breaches of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C benchmark.
The Met Office report gives an 86 percent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will be hotter than 2024, currently the warmest year on record. It also finds a 91 percent likelihood that average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre‑industrial (1850–1900) levels in at least one of the next five years. Annual temperatures for 2026–2030 are projected to fall in a band between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average, and there is a 75 percent chance that the average warming across the full five‑year period will exceed 1.5°C.
“We have an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record‑breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author. El Niño — a periodic warming of tropical Pacific waters — typically boosts global temperatures and can amplify extreme weather such as heavy rainfall and droughts in different regions.
The five‑year outlook also highlights stark regional shifts. The Arctic is expected to continue heating much faster than the global average, with temperatures across the region during the next five northern‑hemisphere winters forecast to average about 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. The report anticipates continued declines in Arctic sea ice, notably in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk — declines that reduce the region’s reflectivity, accelerate local warming and can disrupt ecosystems and weather patterns further afield.
Shifts in rainfall patterns are another key finding. The Met Office forecast points to higher‑than‑average rainfall between 2026 and 2030 in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drier conditions are expected for the Amazon and parts of the subtropics. Winters at higher northern latitudes are also likely to be wetter than average. These changes echo broader scientific warnings that warming will reshape hydrological cycles, with implications for agriculture, water resources and disaster risk management.
The projections are designed for practical use by governments, regional climate centres and national meteorological services to better plan for near‑term climate risks that are “increasingly part of the world’s near‑term climate outlook,” the report says. For Pacific island nations — where communities already face threats from sea‑level rise, coastal erosion and tropical cyclones — an elevated global temperature baseline and a likely El Niño episode could translate into heightened exposure to extreme heat, changes in cyclone behaviour and altered rainfall patterns, underscoring the need for preparedness and adaptation planning.
The five‑year forecast was produced by the UK Met Office acting as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction and is framed as a short‑term, probabilistic outlook rather than a statement about long‑term climate targets. The report stresses that temporary exceedances of 1.5°C are not the same as breaching the Paris Agreement’s long‑term goal, which is concerned with sustained warming averaged over decades. Nonetheless, the new probabilities highlight the accelerating pace of warming and the near‑term challenges that governments and communities worldwide must address.